At a news conference on February 2, 2002, Donald Rumsfield, then U.S. Secretary of Defense, said something very profound in response to a question regarding reports indicating a lack of evidence supporting the idea that the Iraqi government was or was willing to supply terrorists with weapons of mass destruction. Mr. Rumsfield responded:
Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
While Rumsfield’s response is a great example of someone sidestepping a question, what really caught my attention is the idea of unknown unknowns. Things that we don’t even know we don’t know. As a RESULTS volunteer, I’ve learned in the last few years that more than 65 million children cannot attend primary school. (A few years ago, the number was estimated at 72 million children. According to a 2011 estimate by UNESCO, the number was 67 million in 2009.) These are children who’ll become adults and not know how to read, write, and do basic arithmetic. For them, the amount of unknown unknowns will be enormous.
There are many reasons why these children don’t attend school: Lack of money to pay for school fees, books, uniforms, etc.; no school available; and the need to work for income are the most common ones. In the U.S. public education is often criticized, but its availability is assumed like water flowing out when a faucet is turned on. I would guess for most people in the U.S. the idea that 67 million children can’t attend school would be one of the unknown unknowns. I would also venture that the ramifications of that level of ignorance in the world would be unknown unknowns for all of us.
I would argue that a country’s literacy rate correlates with the country’s general level of development and that a country’s level of development correlates to the likelihood of that country’s government collapsing. The best indicators to predict a country’s government collapsing, according to a CIA sponsored study carried out, I think, by a college or university in Maryland, is the country’s under-five mortality rate and, I think, the country’s openness to international trade. High under-five mortality rates and low openness to international trade are the two characteristics that have the strongest correlation to state collapse, according to the study. (If any reader could provide that reference, Id be eternally grateful; I’m sorry to write I can’t find the study anywhere.)
What is the relationship between education and under five mortality rate? According to the Associated Press:
A 2010 study published by The Lancet concluded that “4.2 million fewer children died in 2009 than in 1970 because women of childbearing age in developing countries were more educated.” (Associated Press) For each additional year of education that women received, the mortality rate for children under 5 went down by nearly 10 percent. (AP) The correlation was attributed to the idea that “[e]ducated women tend to use health services more and often make better choices on hygiene, nutrition and parenting.” (AP) They are about fifty percent more likely to have their children immunized. (Herz and Sperling) The single biggest factor in reducing “child malnutrition has been the education of women—even more than direct food aid.” (GCE)
The correlation between low literacy rates and government collapse–or at least weakness appears to hold true for Afghanistan. According to the CIA Factbook, 2011 edition, the literacy rate in Afghanistan is 43.1% for boys and 12.6% for girls. On average, boys will attend school for 11 years, while girls will attend for nine years, based on 2007 data. For comparison, in Somalia the literacy rate is 49.7% for boys and 25.8% (2001 est.) for girls. How long many years boys and girls will remain in school is unavailable. In Pakistan, the literacy rate is 63% for boys and 36% for girls. Boys on average attend school for eight years while girls attend school for six years.
One reason I volunteer with RESULTS is it gives me the chance to learn about and lobby Congress to support international development policies that should make the U.S. safer and more prosperous. I know it’s a long stretch between improving literacy rates in less developed countries and improving my own country’s safety and prosperity, but I believe that connection, while stretched, is there.
The ignorance of unknown unknowns is bliss, but I don’t have that. And for me, knowing about the connection carries responsibilities to do something about it.